TurkeySci Bayesian estimate
MondayAugust 24
Most likely 50% rangeAug 23—Aug 25
Wider 95% rangeAug 22—Aug 26
Combines 4 daily USGS forecast windows for episode 54; it is not the midpoint of the latest window.
TurkeySciOfficial USGS update ↗
Kīlauea galleryFountain episodes at the summit
Current episode54
When might
Kīlauea erupt next?
An independent Bayesian model that combines the complete sequence of USGS forecast windows for the active episode.
01 · Current outlook
Official sourceUSGS · HVO
“Kīlauea volcano is not erupting; the summit eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu is paused. Data indicate the onset of the next fountaining episode is likely between August 22 and August 26.”
Current USGS windowAugust 22 — August 26
Combined daily forecasts
Relative probability by date
TurkeySci probabilityLatest USGS window
The chart starts with today and shows future dates only. Taller orange bars mean greater relative support from the TurkeySci model.
The green band is the latest official USGS range. The orange TurkeySci result stays on top so both can be compared directly.
Episode 54 inputs
How the USGS forecast changed each day
Dates across the top are possible eruption dates. Each row is one USGS update; the highlighted row is today’s update, or the latest available update if today’s report has not been published.
Update date
Aug 22–Aug 26
Aug 21–Aug 27
Aug 21–Aug 27
Aug 21–Aug 27
Observed history
Recent eruption timeline
The ten most recent completed episodes are shown in sequence. The number between markers is the time from one episode start to the next.
15 daysEpisode 53Latest completed
13 daysEpisode 52
18 daysEpisode 51
13 daysEpisode 50
13 daysEpisode 49
18 daysEpisode 48
9 daysEpisode 47
12 daysEpisode 46
14 daysEpisode 45
Episode 44
02 · What the model actually does
Every forecast matters.
TurkeySci uses the complete sequence of daily USGS windows for the active episode—not just the latest range and not simply its midpoint.
Probability by date∝starting assumption×weighted daily forecasts
Collect
Retrieve every daily forecast window for the active episode from the official USGS HANS archive.
Translate
Turn each published window into a smooth range of possible eruption dates.
Weight
Give newer and narrower forecasts more influence using the original model settings.
Combine
Combine all daily evidence and rescale it into an easy-to-compare probability curve.
Technical settings
σ scale 2.0 · recency 2.0 · narrowness 1.5 · ±7 day grid03 · About
Independent science for a living volcano.
TurkeySci is an independent research project by Endlessczz. It makes the evolution of public USGS forecasts easier to see and provides a reproducible Bayesian synthesis of those forecasts.
Experimental model—not an official warning system. Never use TurkeySci for safety, evacuation, travel, or emergency decisions. Follow USGS, Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense, and Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park guidance.
To be updated
Remote sensing is next.
In the next version, I will integrate remote-sensing observations into TurkeySci to help improve prediction accuracy alongside the evolving USGS forecast windows.
Questions · Ideas · Collaboration
Contact
Let’s talk about volcano forecasting.
Endlessczzendlessczz@gmail.com
Questions about TurkeySci, suggestions for the public portal, and research collaboration inquiries are welcome.